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• First Golden Rule Of Investment Being Ignored By Safaricom Buyers

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 1:57 am by chris

  So called financial experts always want to remain so complicated and they have been busy telling yours truly that he knows nothing about business and finance. Well, what do you expect from insecure folks?
  
  That is okay and I have no problem with it. Although the truth is that I was once editor of a very successful financial and business monthly for over 2 years (but do I say?)
  
  Let me indulge my "ignorance" on complex this-is-not-a-fish-market-stock-market-issues for a minute, if you will allow me.
  
  If you want to be a successful investor the first golden rule is never invest money that you cannot afford to lose. NEVER. And that is precisely why it is not a good idea to take out a loan to buy shares.
  
  Most of the people who are going to invest in Safaricom will completely ignore this golden rule for investors, that is if they have heard it.
  
  Let us be blunt here folks this thing is being driven by greed, the same greed that has brought Kenya to its' knees. If I was president the first item in my agenda would have been how to resettle IDPs, not a huge IPO that puts money into the pockets of my backers. But then this is Kenya.
  
  But my point here is quite simple. Shares prices can go up... and they can also go down. Everybody seems to have forgotten what happened to the Kenya Airways shares when they were first floated to the public some years back. The same greed that I see now was there then. It put people into a lot of trouble with loans that they couldn't pay and yet the share prices could not cover the loans because prices had gone down from Kshs 11 up to kshs 7 at one point.
  
  Now I am aware that Safaricom is an extremely profitable company... for now. But there is nothing to stop those shares slipping in price, especially because everybody seems to want to do the same thing (except the fatcats who have some elaborate scheme that is heavily dependent on the public going crazy over the shares).
  
  Now that many Kenyans have chosen to ignore the moral issues about this share issue and have instead chosen to quote "stock experts" some of whom were once called Nyaga Stock brokers, my advice to them is purely financial; don't spend money you don't have.
  
  P.S. If only people knew who Mobitelea are and the characters who are really pushing the Safaricom IPO, they would throw up, I guarantee. Just to give you a hint some of the characters behind the scenes have been responsible for the collapse of once prosperous public companies, sending thousands of Kenyans to the streets while their own accounts have fattened by double digit million figures. Kweli Kenyans never learn. Keep it Kumekucha and you will gradually get to know a lot of fascinating stuff. Even Kumekucha is scared sometimes to reveal some things.

• Buy Safaricom, Build Kenya

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 11:40 pm by Proud Kikuyu Woman

  Before Taabu or Chris rush in with some breaking news/stop press or shocker posts to blur this one, here is my opinion; if you have some money when the bell rings for the Safaricom shares today, buy. In most places, investment decisions are driven by fear and greed, but only in Kenya, by politicians’ whims. I feel like I’ve been preaching to stones but I will never tire of telling us to stop being held hostage by politicians every time Kibaki doesn’t budge. It’s been the norm for ODM to threaten the Kenyan government with mass protests every time the ODM side did not get what they wanted. Not that ODM goes to the mass protests. Last time I checked it was the ‘meat’, not ‘bones’ ministries that they wanted. And there seems to be no better means of getting them than asking you not to go to work (if you have a job, isn’t it sad?) but go protest on the streets. I want to ask you ODManiacs, what’s in it (protests, or boycotting the IPO) for you? Get this; Raila has not spoken against the IPO-why would he need to, he’s got what he wanted. The ball is now in all the wannabe ministers’ courts. Or rather the gun is in their right hand, and you are in their left.

  
  

  Let me tell you why I think you should invest in Safaricom and telecommunication in general-it’s not only growing at the speed of light (OK, that is an exaggeration) , but the innovations in place are making even the developed countries gawk with awe. DO you know that mobile banking is a relatively new concept hukos? Less than 10 years ago, very few - and only rich- Kenyans could afford landline phones. In 2008, many, even the poor, have cell phones. That is development, no pun intended. Safaricom came in as only the second national operator and was able to sign in multiples of what Celtel had in a matter of months. As I write this, they are probably in their 8^th prefix in the 8 or so years that they have been in operation. Their profits have been astronomical. Isitoshe, they have transferred billions of shillings to millions of Kenyans whom the banks could not profitably reach in their now 1-year old M-Pesa product. And you tell me I can’t own part of that growth if I could? Dream on.

  
  

  Second reason; it’s your country, own as much of it as you can. You ain’t doing no one a favour but yourself. I just about puked when reading some of Chris’s advice; ati let the foreigners own Safaricom, but not Kenyans. With all due brotherly love, ndugu yangu, emancipate yourself from that colonial mentality. It’s what’s ailing us. Kenya ni yetu. If I have an opportunity to own part of it, me I tell you (!), I care less that you think foreigners have a better right to it. Kwanza that will give me the right to vote and my vote will tell M.J or whoever is in the drivers seat how to run that Safaricom of ours. If I had the chance I would rather vote than whine. You?
  

  
  

  To the rumour mongers: No in my opinion, Safaricom never made any undue profits. They had the ‘second mover advantage’ that enabled them to learn what the then Kencel had not done right, and hit the ground running. While I’m proud of Kencel’s successor, Celtel as the baby of our very own Mo Ibrahim, they seem to think that Africa is one big market with no individual countries that are very particular (“Hello Africa! Tell me how you’re doing!” Sounds familiar?) in what they need. If my memory serves me right, Safaricom was the first to introduce the 100 bob credit that needed no scratch card. I first read it here that they just introduced a 20 bob scratch card that is within reach for most of its customers. Now that gets more people switching to Safaricom, increasing revenue, and yes - making profit. Add to that our peculiar calling habits, and again M-Pesa.

  
  

  Did someone say that Safaricom is under investigation for fraud in the UK? That is a blatant lie. Safaricom has been trying to introduce M-Pesa to the Kenyan Diaspora in the UK so that even they can send money home via M-Pesa. There are payments and money transfers rules in place that must be followed, and that’s all that Safcom needs to get in place. Some have to do with Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism, others simply to do with ‘deposit’ taking. Safaricom had to do the whole drill with the Central Bank of Kenya before they could introduce M-Pesa, they will do it do it again with the UK’s Financial Aid Task Force and make more profits; do not be deceived, invest now.

  
  

  So if you have some money, buy!If I could,I would. However, if you have some but would rather go mass- protesting because someone thinks on your behalf and you do the acting, well, honestly dear, I’d rather you just shut up and drink the kool-aid. But if you miraculously survive and, a few years down the line someone fails to be P, VP, PM, DPM, M or AM and you end up having a strong urge to burn Safaricom House or Telekom House because they are ‘owned by Kikuyus’, ask yourself who prevented you from owning them, then go burn his house.

• Naomi Campbell and Mass Action Call By ODM Over Safaricom IPO

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 7:25 pm by chris

  Kenyan politics is getting rather tiresome and exhausting, especially for yours truly. So let’s start this political post on the fringes.

  World super model Naomi Campbell loves the Kenyan Coast and that is where she spent the recent Easter holidays. Kumekuchans will remember that one of the most desirable women on earth had a case in 2006 where she was accused of throwing a cell phone at her maid. The supermodel has quite a temper.

  Naomi Campbell was In Malindi over Easter and issued a strange statement
  

  This was hardly the first time the volatile Campbell, 35, has been accused of assault. Yet another employee said Campbell threw a phone at her during a tantrum in 2001. Then in 2004, Campbell’s maid claimed that her employer slapped her. Campbell pleaded guilty to an assault charge for beating yet another assistant in 1998. As the Americans say, Phew, some broad!!

  But even more fascinating was the fact that during her recent stay in Kenya, Ms Campbell released a statement from her Malindi hideout praising Kenya as a holiday resort and declaring it very safe for tourists. That was excellent PR for Kenyan tourism, especially after what has happened in the last two months or so. But wait a minute! Who organized that publicity?

  You will begin to understand what I am driving at when you realize where Ms Campbell was staying and who owns it. She was at the Lion In The Sun Resort in Malindi. A mere weeks stay at this private resort costs 36,000 Euros (don’t bother converting it into Kenya shillings, just know that it is a lot of money, actually close to Kshs4 million).

  Flavio Briatore

  It is owned by world renowned playboy Flavio Briatore. This man has been linked to the underworld. Need I say more, you all know the kind of Italian crowd that runs Malindi don’t you. My point is that you can be sure that Mr Briatore did not do this kind f favour to the Kenyan government for free. Of course the favor will be returned in some way and I leave that to your imagination. Hint: Mr Briatore is NOT an ice cream magnate.

  There have been rumours that Briatore and Campbell are...
  
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• Mugabe Does a Kibaki+Moi on Zimbabwe

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 1:59 pm by Taabu

  
  As Zimbabwean head to the polls on Saturday, Mugabe has warned Zimbabweans NEVER to dare do a Kenya on him. President Bob has promptly read the mandatory riot act to the opposition warning them of brimstone and hell should they dare protest in the event of losing the elections. Cut from the same cloth, the script is like a cut-and-paste from Major Ali’s warning to Kenyans banning any protest just before last year’s stolen elections? Trust Mugabe and his age mates to know a thing ordinary mortals don't - election results in advance. Theirs is coronation after a national ritual.
  
  African fossils for leaders all behave the same. After inviting hyper inflation to take permanent residence in Zimbabwe 84-year old comrade Bob still considers himself the most expensive gift God bestowed to the Shonas and Ndebeles. A hitherto breadbasket in Southern Africa has been steadily transformed to basket case. With 8 degrees to his name over 100,000% inflation (yes hundred thousand) is nothing but figures to Zimbabwe's tin god.
  
  Robert Gabriel Mugabe is leaving nothing to chance. He is still stuck with the old antics which Moi perfected here in Kenya. Mugabe has ensured none of the two opposition presidential candidates gets his adverts aired even after paying. What is more, no landing for their campaign choppers. But the icing on the theft-in-advance cake is printing 9 million ballot papers for 6 million registered voters. Ole wetu, we never patented the TOP-UP vice, or we thought we did?
  
  Patented top-up
  Behind every senile African leader lurks either a deranged or calculative first lady. Mugabe cannot afford to do anything against the wishes of his 37-year old former secretary-turned-wife. Grace Marufu cannot imagine life outside real power at that TENDER AGE. Having a whole Boeing Air Zimbabwe full of passengers wait for ONLY 18 hours as she shops elegantly in Cairo in no big deal either.
  
  Old is really wood, a very expensive timber. Mugabe's 300+ bedrooms palace is worth KES 800m and encircled by TWO man-made lakes. That is obtuse opulence for you in a land where policewomen and soldiers subsidise their paltry income with selling their bodies. No wonder the above half million Zimbabwean dollar isn't enough to buy a banana!
  
  Kenya doesn't have a monopoly to bad political manners. We are in good company albeit of the primitive variation. Political dinosaurs are our bane and we are stuck with them kama kupe as one Ivy loves telling us here at Kumekucha. The services of his Excellency Kofi Annan has never been in such high demand. Na bado.

• Kumekucha Social Check: Our Young Men

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 11:01 am by ritch

  Why you are extremely corrupt if you buy into Safaricom shares
  
  The other day I found myself 'inadvertently' eavesdropping on the conversation of some two young men. They were talking about Aids, sex and marriage.
  
  One of them was saying that men (quite an outlandish generalization!) cannot do without sex. He went on to say that as long as a man is 'functioning' then sex is the sure release of his building pressure.
  
  Then the insalubrious 'party pooper' was brought into the picture: Aids. They fear Aids (who doesn’t?). Talking of Aids as if talking of the weather is sheer madness (what I learnt from what they were saying). They said that with Aids lurking somewhere in the shadows of 'after sex' then a tricky situation had plunged headlong onto the scene.
  
  One of the two (a bachelor, I learnt) said that with Aids marring the beautiful picture that once gleamed in the light, marriage had become a no-tread zone to many a young man. He said that he would 'marry' for two or three years and, after getting a kid or two, tell the woman (read wife),
  "Your time's up. Pack your bags and leave!" He would retain the children (with that, he would have accomplished his goal in life!).
  
  They viewed sex as a way of letting off 'steam' and marriage as a 'factory' for making children; after that: to hell with it!
  
  My Take
  This is a dim view of reality. Sex and marriage are beautiful things created by God. Sex serves its purpose divinely in the context of marriage. And marriage is more than just 'where children are made' but rather where we learn to use our God-given talents to benefit each other (the married) in exciting ways that increase the gushes and torrents of love.
  
  Still on the issue of marriage, sample what Bishop T.D. Jakes has to say to the married and the ones aspiring to be married one day.
  
  What it means to be Married:
  
  "To the one you are marrying you are saying: when my time comes to leave this world, when the chill of eternity blows away my birthdays and my future stands still in the night, it's your face I want to kiss goodbye. It's your hand I want to squeeze, as I slip from time to eternity. As the curtain closes on all I have attempted to do and be, I want to look into your eyes and see that I mattered. Not what I looked like or how much money I made, or even how talented I was. I just want to look into the eyes of someone who loved me and see that I mattered."
  
  This is quite a huge price tag attached to the marriage institution and certainly the missing piece in the jigsaw.
  
  Spouses out there 'for better or for worse' please don't do this to your partner.

• Why You Support Corruption If You Buy Safaricom Shares

  Posted: March 27, 2008, 2:39 am by chris

  God made a Kenyan

  Kenyan made the Kenya shilling

  The Kenya shilling made the Kenyan mad, mad, mad

  I am certain most of you will go out and buy Safaricom shares like crazy. But make sure that you remember to look in the mirror after applying for your shares. That is if you want to see a corrupt Kenyan Live (or livu as my Tanzanian brothers like to say) and at very close range.

  And if you are against corruption then it is a good idea that you start your fight against the vice with the person you see in the mirror. That is one person who has the power to stop corruption dead in its’ tracks and what better place to start than to cause the Safaricom IPO to fall flat on its’ face.

  In case you are able to sober up from your money-mania high for one minute, here are some 7 solid reasons why you should not even touch the Safaricom prospectus.

  1. Shares have to be purchased through stock brokers. Already two have gone bust, the latest being Nyaga Stock Brokers. Both collapses have had one thing in common; the stock brokers were trading in their client’s shares without the knowledge of the said clients. The hurred computerization of the NSE has made these games so easy, it is unbelievable and a big scandal on its’ own. And Safaricom will be the ideal share to play this game with, especially in the first few weeks of trading. Do you want to cheat yourself that only Nyaga Stock Brokers were playing the game of trading in client shares? In law two witnesses saying the same thing confirm a thing. In my book two brokers dealing in client shares confirms that this “disease” is rampant on the NSE. Right now there are 130,000 very upset Kenyans who may never recover their hard earned life savings which they handed over to Nyaga stock brokers in good faith. It is sheer madness that the government and Kenyans have ignored those 130,000 Kenyans in their greed to get to Safaricom shares. It is obvious that the thing to do would be to fix the rot within the NSE first before doing anything else, least of all launching the largest IPO in the history of Africa north of the Limpopo river.

  1. By purchasing Safaricom shares you will be putting money into the pockets of the corrupt ghosts who own Mobitelea. We all know them.

  1. The entry of Safaricom shares in the NSE will affect all other shares currently there negatively, because of the sheer size of the offer. (Picture what happens in a village market when somebody floods the entire place with cheap but very sweet oranges. It will affect all other commodities in that market) The elite club within the NSE have already prepared for this and have carefully positioned themselves to make a killing as you struggle to make your few shillings from your few Safaricom shares. In other words you are being used as a pawn in other people’s schemes while cheating yourself that you are making a wise investment and that you will make a killing.

  1. Investing in the Safaricom shares is a statement from you that Turkwell Gorge was clean and so was Goldenberg and Anglo Leasing. Actually you will be saying that corruption is OK as long as you make something. Incidetally this is what got us into the crisis of last December in the first place. A sizeable number of Kenyans decided that it is OK to vote for corrupt governments and individuals as long as those people come from our tribe. In other words you are surely a tribalist if you buy Safaricom shares, because it is proof that you think very selfishly.

  1. Buying Safaricom shares will be a powerful vote against reform and against a new constitution from you. Thank you for voting, the government will happily hear you, because you will have spoken loudly and clearly.

  1. Those planning to get in quickly and then swiftly get rid of the shares soon after at a much higher price had better think twice. Do you think it will work with maybe a million other Kenyans planning to do exactly the same thing? People make money from stock exchanges by swimming in the opposite direction which is exactly the direction the fat cats will be swimming. I am talking about those guys Kenyans want to make even richer but already, to these guys, Kshs 10 million is loose pocket change.

  1. If you apply for those shares before the grand coalition government is in place, you will be making a very significant statement. Figure it our for yourself.

Blah blah blah

Fish cakes

Alas a fish cake.

Yet more fish cakes

Guess what ... yeah ... fish cakes.

The end of the fish cakes