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The Amazing Kumekucha Predictions

Posted: January 30, 2008, 4:56 pm by chris

Kumekucha asked to predict what will happen in Kenya in 2008

Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.
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Yet another victim of the raging post-election violence and it looks like the attackers "cut him" as well as attacking him. Police in Naivasha check for any signs of life.
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Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.

- When everybody else was calling political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in the event that he was defeated.

- Kumekucha kept on calling the 2007 elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right...

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Kumekucha Forecasts for 2008

Posted: January 30, 2008, 4:53 pm by chris

The question on everybody’s mind is when will the current crisis end?

My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.

To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my next post.

For those who understand spiritual things, this is judgement for Kenya and all the evil and injustices that have taken place in our country. It will not stop until every stiff (proud) neck has been humbled. Going by some of the comments I receive in this blog, it will take a lot to humble some of our brothers and sisters.

What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence...

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Annan Crisis Talks Doomed To Fail

Posted: January 30, 2008, 3:05 am by Phil
Kibaki, Annan and Raila seen here observing a minute of silence in honour of those Kenyans who have needlessly died since Kivuitu declared Kibaki as the winner of the presidential polls. The call to stand-up was aptly made by none other than Raila Odinga.

Kenyan problem will be half-solved the moment we treat each other as equals

Even before the nominated teams begin negotiations, signs are already emerging that the Annan led mediation talks are doomed to fail. Yesterday, the talks were nearly sabotaged by Office of the President protocol officers who were insisting that Kibaki sits alone on the ‘high table’ because he is the ‘supreme presidential authority’. The ODM and Mr. Annan on the other hand, would hear none of it and in the end, Raila and Kibaki occupied the same ‘high table’ flanking Annan on both sides as equals. This was after Annan and the Speaker of the National Assembly as the convener of the meeting over-ruled the OP protocol officials. Such pettiness, emanating from the PNU side, clearly shows that they are treating their political adversaries as junior partners. Protocol officials who do not appreciate that it is the very presidency that is in contention nearly exchanged blows with ODM officials prior to Annan/Marende's intevention!

The PNU had already started showing bad faith by nominating ODM-K members who have unashamedly already endorsed the legitimacy of the presidency as their representatives in the mediation process. The ODM has been clear in its demands that it does not recognize the 'government' and will only negotiate with the other side as PNU.

Even worse, on the same day talks were due to begin, PNU government insiders were desperately trying to hide from accusations of complicity in the assassination of Embakasi ODM MP Mugabe Were. Similarly, Kenya police were groping around for excuses after tear-gassing innocent mourners at the late MP’s residence. The mourners included the widows and infant children!

Barren Foreign Affairs Policy

Thanks to Kenya's barren foreign affairs policy and scant respect for global affairs, the Annan talks will, in all probability, not see the light of day.

As it is, although the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has been in the region in recent days and is due to attend the African Union summit in Ethiopia later this week, he has given Kenya a wide-berth. Ban Ki-moon has been heavily criticised by human rights group for ignoring the Kenyan crisis. The UN-SG seems caught in a serious dilemma because he does not want to be seen upstaging the African Union under whose umbrella the Annan team is operating.

As if to add insult to injury, the all powerful UN Security Council has been quick to wash its hands off the Kenyan crisis ostensibly because the crisis does not meet its rules and regulations governing its response to issues of peace and security.

Back to the Addis Ababa AU summit, PNU’s Kibaki has ignored official requests to stay away and is insisting he will attend the meeting as Kenya’s duly elected head of state. This obviously will adversely affect the direction of the mediation talks back in Kenya.

Although the Kenyan deaths and displacements are painful to most people, international sympathy is not too much as to warrant an UN peace keeping intervention. Moreover, the Annan team lacks real powers to enforce some of the pre-conditions it has listed on the MOU that was signed last evening. It is apparent even to Mr. Annan himself that this will not be the first MOU for PNU to disregard MOUs. President Kuffuor (Chairman AU) and President Museveni (Chairman Commonwealth & EAC) have both been in Nairobi to try and resolve this crisis, but both have been largely unsuccessful. Several former African heads of state plus Nobel Peace Prize Laureates Desmond Tutu and our own Wangari Maathai have also been given a cold shoulder by PNU.

What options does this leave the ODM?
- Resign to fate and accept that it is the official opposition and continue its mandate? Obviously NO!
- Revert to its mass action and economic boycott calls? Maybe, YES!
- Hope that someone somewhere has the absolute power to force Kibaki/PNU out of statehouse and organise presidential re-elections in the shortest time possible. Hopefully, YES!
What options does this leave the PNU?
- Continue to bury its head in the sand, assume that it is rightfully in power and proceed with discharging its mandate? Pray, NO!
- Accept that the presidential vote tallying was deeply flawed and Kibaki’s purported swearing-in highly irregular? Of course, YES!
- That both a vote-recount and a legal process are not viable options because the votes are already interfered with and that the judiciary in Kenya is impartial? Please, YES!
- Accept to form a transitional government with ODM with the sole purpose of re-constituting the ECK and re-organising fresh elections? Hell YEAH!
Let the people decide.