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You Missed This

Political History Reapting Itself in Advance

Posted: January 24, 2008, 3:29 pm by Taabu

Kofi Annan appears to have waved his MAGIC wand and viola all Kenyans are ululating with bliss. But just wait a minute? Was the Kibaki-Raila handshake the lull before the deadly storm that will make the present 1000 graves accommodating poor Kenyans look like a beautification parade? You guess right we are back to square one ala IPPG of 1997 and 2002 where deals were hammered with the sole intention of trashing them immediately thereafter.

Kibaki DOES NOT mean any good for Kenya and any motion from him is meant to generate no meaningful movement. Annan has already reprimanded him for poisoning his mediation by a belligerent and careful reference to himself as ‘your duly elected President’. You don’t STEAL an election to hand it back, or do you? Kenyans must be aliens from Mars to accept that fallacy.

Make no mistake. No everybody who goes against the current should be cheaply labelled a hardliner. By the way pessimists are not what they are demonized to be but in retrospection they are REALISTS. We cannot and will never solve our problems by sweeping them under the carpet. We must squarely address the genesis of the present turmoil. Cheating ourselves that we are looking at the bigger picture is to engage in self-deception. No forest exists without trees and the former is trivially the sum total of the later.

Short-termism may help cool political temperatures yes but failing to confront our problems head on is to latently and unwitting incubate our national problems which will surely explode sooner rather than later. Justice has no synonym and can attempt to decapitate it only to have it mutate to its original form and demand redress.

False confidence
All the talk of power sharing may look rosy in between textbook pages but not for Kenya. The level of hatred has reached irreconcilable proportions. The supremacists will shout themselves hoarse urging all and sundry to move on. Common try another one. We know the hindsight and your eyes are singularly trained on the price: status quo and subjugation.

You don’t negotiate with a serial promise broker beholden to a small clique of entrepreneurs who see Kenyans as the providers of a collective back to ride on for their selfish economic enterprises. No more and enough is enough. Raila and co have two choices: either to fight the war to its bitter and logical end or detour and win the ‘winnable’ battle with all the attendant BETRAYAL and loss of goodwill amongst majority of Kenyans.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to decipher why a section of Kenyans demonize devolution of any shade – political and economic. Simple, devolution slashes profits and wipes away domination. Once bitten severally shy.

Power games
The Kibaki-Raila handshake was nothing but a smokescreen meant to mean nothing absolutely. The only point of convergence was a hollow mention of the word peace. Otherwise while speaks of JUSTICE and TRUTH, Kibaki take is RECONCILIATION and HEALING. Who is fooling who here? Granted, whoever is right or wrong is spurious in times of war. If we were to be honest with ourselves we would see all this for what it is: POWER GAMES with a predictable outcome.

If Raila by any chance succumbs to pressure and betrays the majority he will be simply repeating history before it is even written. The NARC-LDP betrayals are still raw wounds inflicted by the same players. I wonder whether Rails is ready to jump into that cesspool of MISTRUST and BAD FAITH again. Time will tell and the time of judgment is here. Rails finds himself between the rock and the dark blue sea.

Raila has to prove that his shoulders are large enough for the troubles of his many supporters and NOT just big enough for his ego and political expediency. I don’t envy the man any little bit. But the bottom line remains Raila's position is not meant for the politically faint hearted. Good luck in the interim.
Kenya Politics Headed to a Grand Coalition

Posted: January 24, 2008, 2:24 am by Phil

The first day of Koffi Annan led mediation talks indicates that there is light at end of the dark political tunnel, we can authoritatively reveal.

It looks like Kenya is headed for a power sharing deal that may also see the country establish a truth, justice and reconciliation committee. The grand coalition will operate on consensus and will see significant decentralization of executive power by the president.

As a matter of priority, the current Electoral Commission of Kenya will be disbanded and a new representative one constituted to oversee preparation for future (general) elections.

Whereas the ODM was initially pushing for a short term transitional government that would prepare for a re-run of the presidential polls, the party has significantly thawed and is ready to accept a power sharing deal with its bitter rival PNU. On the other hand, the PNU camp feels its candidate won the presidential polls 'fairly' and that a re-run is not an option. The ruling party prefers to incorporate members of the ODM into Kibaki’s vacant cabinet positions as a way of appeasing them and their supporters. The PNU is also open to the coalition idea but are reluctant to see presidential powers devolved.

It would appear that ODM/NARC are seeking permanent and independent share of political power for their parties as opposed to being mere appointees of PNU’s President Kibaki. In other words, ODM/NARC are avoiding the same treatment the LDP received during the initial days of Kibaki’s first term as a NARC president.

It is significant that both Museveni and Annan have adopted a straight shooting one-on-one approach with the key protagonist whom many believed are driven to their hardline positions by allies surrounding them. It is widely feared by the international community that the collapse of Kenya will be catastrophic and have far reaching implications on the entire African continent.

Going by the closely contested results of the presidential and parliamentary polls; political observers foresee the formation of a balanced grand coalition government which will be facilitated by constitutional amendments when parliament reconvenes.

Each of the two major partners will be allocated top positions in government and each will have some degree of executive power which will enable them draw their own line-up of select members of cabinet.

This proposed grand coalition, having a total of 34 members of cabinet, will be structured along this forecast:

Mwai Kibaki (PNU) – President & Head of State
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K) - Vice President & Deputy Head of State
15 Cabinet Positions - PNU/ODM-K/KANU/A.N. OTHER

Raila Odinga – Prime Minister & Leader of Parliamentary Business
Musalia Mudavadi – Deputy Prime Minister
15 Cabinet Positions - ODM/NARC/A.N. OTHER

(Sounds to me like the Bomas Draft)

But then, what does such an arrangement mean for multi-party democracy?

Is this an introduction of a new constitution through the back-door?

This is apparently the cost of achieving lasting peace and moving on after the highly controversial and violent 27 December general elections.

What is your take?