KA-INVESTOR

• No More Celtel

  Posted: May 14, 2008, 2:18 pm by ka-investor

  
  Celtel International, a leading mobile telephone service provider across Africa could be in a major re-branding strategy before the end of this year. The move could see the company drop the Celtel brand and adopt a completely new identity - Zain. The new name is used by celtel’s parent company MTC Group in other nations except the African market.
  
  MTC group says the re-branding is meant to re-invent the regional brand into a global brand. Experts described the new logo as too dark and moody. The re-branding process has reportedly begun in Kuwait and is expected to spread to other MTC-branded operations in the Middle East then Africa.
  
  Brandscape has more discussions on Celtel re-branding and other branding issues.
  

• Safaricom IPO Oversubscription: Investors Options

  Posted: May 9, 2008, 10:02 pm by ka-investor

  Finally, Safaricom IPO has been oversubscribed and we are set for the minute allocations we are used to. Despite the instability witnessed in the country at the beginning of the year, the IPO was surprisingly oversubscribed by 382% - raising Ksh.119 billion. To some extend I feel duped. I was basing my investment decision on the fact that many people will not buy into it because of the post election chaos. So what could have happened if these IPO had come last year when everybody was itching for it? What about if BoT had allowed Tanzanians to participate in the IPO? Probably we would have seen a 500% oversubscription.

  With Ksh.50 billion safely in the net, the IPO has surpassed its goals; namely: maximizing revenues for the Treasury, increasing international investor interest in the NSE and deepening the market. Safaricom IPO is now the Largest Sub-Saharan IPO ever completed (previously SANLAM and Telkom S. A from South Africa were the largest). In Africa as a whole it’s now the third largest IPO after those of Maroc Telecom and Telecom Egypt.
  
  Safaricom will most probably announce their ever impressive year end results this May. The company had Ksh.16 billion profits before tax for the 9 month ended December 2007 (almost equal to ksh.17 billion full years profit in 2007), up from Ksh.12 billion last year – 2008 full year pre-tax profit may hit ksh.22 billion. So will the dividend only accrue to the old shareholders (GoK, Vodafone & Mobitelea) or will the new shareholders also be included? I would advocate for the latter to sooth the bitter retail investors – like me - that feel they have been taken for a ride.

  What options do retail investors have now? Looking at the small number of shares we will be allocated we don’t have many options:

  Option 1
  Stay put – the bog boys and the QII will – and then when short term speculators will be selling @Ksh.10, top up your account with as many shares as you can using your refund. Then enjoy the ride to supernormal gains.

  Option 2
  Swallow your anger (asira za chura na ng’ombe) and reinvest your refund in the shares once they start trading on June 9^th and wait for an opportune time (probably before Telkom K and Celtel K catch up) and price to cash out.

  Option 3
  Wait for your CDS account to be credited and sell the shares as soon as they hit Ksh.10. then chase around for your refund and invest in the next big thing (Coop bank IPO, KCB & HFCK right issues, NMG share split or Equity bank, which is definitely headed for a split).

• Pangea Day Event

  Posted: May 9, 2008, 9:45 pm by ka-investor

  
  
  

  Starting at 18:00 GMT on May 10, 2008, locations in Cairo, Kigali, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, and Rio de Janeiro will be linked for a live program of powerful films, live music, and visionary speakers. The entire program will be broadcast – in seven languages – to millions of people worldwide through the internet, television, and mobile phones.

  
  

  The 24 short films to be featured have been selected from an international competition that generated more than 2,500 submissions from over one hundred countries. The films were chosen based on their ability to inspire, transform, and allow us see the world through another person's eyes. Details on the Pangea Day films can be viewed here.

  The program will also include a number of exceptional speakers and musical performers. Queen Noor of Jordan, CNN's Christiane Amanpour, musician/activist Bob Geldof, and Iranian rock phenom Hypernova are among those taking part.

  About Pangea Day:

  Inspired by the 2006 TED Prize wish of documentary filmmaker Jehane Noujaim, Pangea Day endeavors to bring the world together and promote understanding and tolerance through film. Pangea Day is a celebration of what unites us, rather than what divides us. Movies can't change the world. But the people who watch them can. After May 10, Pangea Day organizers will facilitate community-building activities around the world by connecting inspired viewers with organizations doing groundbreaking work. For more information, please visit

  For more information see; http://www.pangeaday.org/

• KQ: In Memory of Flight 507

  Posted: May 5, 2008, 9:15 pm by ka-investor

  
  

  (This post is in memory of all the 114 passengers who perished in the crash)

  It’s exactly one year since KQ flight 507 went down in Duala – Cameroon. Up to now, no official report has been released on the real cause of the crash. Kenya Airways is now seeking the help of the Kenya government and the US Administration, manufacturers of the Boeing, to compel the Cameroonian authorities to release the one year old report.

  The Boeing 737-800 series was only 6 months old and so the issue of a technical hitch could not arise. Two weeks ago, another 737-800 series belonging to KQ overshot the runway at the Entebbe International Airport in Uganda, and once again the incident was blamed on bad weather. On Friday last week, a Kenya Airways flight from Kisumu to Nairobi aborted after what the airline said was a small technical hitch (what hitch?)

  Although KQ CEO, Titus Naikuni, came out defending his company’s record and said that such hitches are expected taking into account the volume of flights KQ covers, it leaves a lot to beg. The frequency of the recent incidences does not look normal at all. Could this be a case of mismanagement? It’s clearly understood that workers at this flight company are quite overworked and may be under performing not due to laziness, but fatigue.

  What KQ needs is a complete overhaul and not a re-branding, hiking fares or cancellation of partnerships. The whole management team needs to be replaced with a new one with more stringent performance contracts. Without this the inefficient rot in there will never be dealt with and more disappointing things will happen. We cannot afford to lose more lives just because we want to serve vested interests. Our African Pride is bigger than that.

  The company is faced with very tough industry times (increased fuel prices, stringent terrorism laws and stiff competition from international Airlines) and cannot afford to goof around. I think making the KQ private owned or fully owned by the public will make it more efficient and accountable to its customers. Things like 48 hours delays of flights will be a thing of the past.

Blah blah blah

Fish cakes

Alas a fish cake.

Yet more fish cakes

Guess what ... yeah ... fish cakes.

The end of the fish cakes