Concept Advisory Services

• Mid Year Personal Financial Review

  Posted: July 7, 2008, 8:50 pm by admin

  Today marks the first week of the second part of this year. Looking back, I cannot imagine that it’s barely three months since peace was restored here in Kenya. It has been a bumpy ride what with inflation hitting an all time high of 30% and the corruption allegation in the grand coalition. I have also been amazed at the level that we Kenyans just pick the pieces and move on as if nothing has happened. Watching the TV clips on post election violence one would think it happened 10 years ago. On the other hand, maybe it’s because I was not directly affected. For those who were in the thick of things, it is my desire that God will give you the strength to move on and that better things are in store.

   I have been thinking of how the year has been in regard to investments. The opportunities that I grabbed and I made something out of it and those that I lost due to either ignorance or lack of information. I always advice my clients to do a personal review not only on their finances but also on other areas of their lives. Otherwise, how will you know whether you are moving ahead or regressing?

   Doing a review presupposes that you somehow had a target set. For example, if you bought a particular stock and didn’t set a price to sell or buy more then any price would be ok for you, provided it’s higher than the price you bought. That is why before you set to do anything, have some time by yourself and evaluate the reason why, how and when.

  Get those ones right and I can assure you that success will follow you.

   The best thing that happened was to establish a website. Through this website, I have come to know and to interact at a deeper level with some of you. The friends I have made and strangers I have meet have been a source of inspiration. This website also goes to show that people need info on investments. I am glad that CMA is thinking of conducting a series of investor education forums through out the country. If its not hot air then we will have better informed investors and gradually see it reflected in the market.

   I remember in January urging my clients to increase their portfolio and some thought I was nuts. Obviously, some even liquidated their holdings and some were bright enough to pump in more cash. These are the individuals posting over 80% return on their portfolio. Picture this, as at 6^th February Equity share was trading at k’sh 130. Today, the stock closed at k’sh 306. This translates to 135% return. Simply put, it pays to go against the herd. I am sure those who bought some units in the Equity fund are also happy with the returns.

   My shortcoming has been since March I have neglected a part of my business. I too was caught up by the Safaricom craze and I got destabilized. That’s why the blog and the main section on articles have not been updated for a while. I have come to realize when I share any info out there I find myself better informed on investments. It is my belief that starting today you will see more relevant posting frequently.

   The other issue for me would be time management. I remember in January chasing individuals to invest. Re-assuring potential investors that all would be well. By this time no one wanted to hear of the stock market. Remember black Tuesday when market capitalization fell by k’sh 40 billion? I think it was on 16^th January. Come March and things have cooled off and characteristically everyone wants a piece of the action before it is too late. The same people I was chasing to invest now come in droves and the time aspect and organization is stretched to the limit.

   My portfolio averages 78% return and I am happy with the way things are. Safaricom may not have posted the triple returns as per many peoples wishes but this is what investing in stocks is all about. You have to think long term even when speculating. As a rule, please do not invest your kitchen budget or school fees in the stock market regardless of that hot stock tip. Timing the market is a dangerous game.

   What does the future hold? I expect the market to be awakened from its perceived slumber since the Safaricom disappointment by the Co-op IPO. I am also keenly watching Celtel bid to raise their market share before Econnet rolls out their products. However, at times I feel Celtel is fighting a losing battle. Politics has also taken a familiar twist and I will leave it to the politicians to do their bit. For you and I, let us do what we do best. Invest for the future is uncertain!

Blah blah blah

Fish cakes

Alas a fish cake.

Yet more fish cakes

Guess what ... yeah ... fish cakes.

The end of the fish cakes